A New Geopolitical Turn: Is the Transatlantic Alliance Fracturing?
Donald Trump, synonymous with controversy, delivered a statement during an election rally in South Carolina in February 2024 that sent shockwaves through political circles in both America and Europe. Referencing a conversation he had with the president of a “large European country,” he stated that if that country did not pay its share of dues to NATO, the United States would not defend it. Furthermore, Trump added that he would encourage Russian President Putin to “do whatever he wants” to countries in NATO that “don’t pay their bills.”
This statement immediately deepened the chasm of distrust between the United States and Europe. President Biden and European leaders saw it as a sign of a complete breakdown of transatlantic relations in a potential second Trump term. Although this fear may have been exaggerated, the policies of Trump’s second term have made it clear that some major changes are coming to the relationship between the US and Europe. Trump and his team are prepared to fundamentally alter and reshape US-Europe relations under a new set of rules and expectations.
Following the end of World War II and the Cold War, the United States and Europe worked under close cooperation. European countries have long believed that the ultimate guarantee of their security rested with the United States. America’s security guarantees and its military presence on the European continent not only enabled the US to counter Russia but also helped it establish itself as a superpower across the globe. However, while this provided Europe with resilience to deal with any threat, it also benefited the US by giving it considerable influence over European foreign policy.
In the eyes of transatlantic leaders, this contract has been successful thus far. European countries share democratic values with the United States. The European Union is America’s largest bilateral trade and investment partner. Europe helps the US manage a “liberal international order.” From this perspective, the security guarantee provided by the United States to Europe is a small price to pay for all of these benefits.
But Donald Trump and those working in his administration have now changed their perspective on this. These are the people now determining America’s priorities. It is only from this way of thinking that we can understand how US-Europe relations may evolve during Trump’s second term. According to Trump’s allies, America has pampered Europe too much. The US attitude towards Europe has been too lenient for the past 35 years, and European countries have been unilaterally benefiting from this. The United States spends a great deal on the security of Europe, and because of this, America cannot project its power in other places, while European countries do not have to spend as much on their own security because of the American guarantee. The European countries use the money they save to spend on their social security programs.
European countries should no longer expect that US-Europe relations will remain the same in a second Trump term. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made this clear in no uncertain terms during his first trip to NATO in February. He told his European allies that he was “here to say directly and plainly that some harsh strategic realities prevent the United States from focusing primarily on the security of Europe.” He also said that for their security, “European countries must step up and take the lead.” This message from the United States surprised European countries, but the idea is not new. Dwight D. Eisenhower and previous American presidents have also complained that Europe has become accustomed to riding on America’s back.
The big question now is how to give these changes the cloak of reality and improve transatlantic relations. During Trump’s second term, European countries must be prepared for a slight decrease in American support for the security of Europe. There may also be a decrease in the presence of US troops on the European continent. Trump has already said that he wants to reduce the number of US troops in Europe to 20,000. Moreover, Trump has also said that he wants to demand subsidies from his European allies for the remaining troops stationed in Europe.
Besides defense and security, the political landscape in the US and Europe is also cracking under the pressure of different norms and values. US Vice President JD Vance made this clear during his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February. According to Vance, Trump’s team believes that Europe’s threat is internal. He accused Europe of retreating from those traditional democratic values that have historically been shared with the United States, primarily including the issues of free expression, religious freedom, and migration.
This also means that Trump may now take a highly transactional approach to Europe, especially with those countries that are not politically aligned with him. Trump’s stance on Europe’s economic dependence on China may be clearly visible. Trump and his team believe that China is having its cake and eating it too in the case of Europe. China has direct access to European markets and its critical infrastructure. This gives China the power to fulfill its global economic ambitions. Although it is difficult to predict what the long-term consequences of this will be, it is certain that the European Union (and various European countries) must be prepared to face American pressure regarding China policy for the next four years. During this time, Europe may feel that it is being forced to choose a side. Europe’s view on China policy is already fragmented, so American pressure may further weaken this already fractured approach.
The early months of Trump’s second term have already put the transatlantic partnership in crisis. European countries have been shocked by the harsh messages that American leaders have given to Europe at the Munich Security Conference. However, they should not have been surprised by this. When Biden gave the “America is Back” slogan after becoming president in 2020, European countries should have understood its implications at that time.
Europe is once again in its former state. European countries are now trying to understand how to deal with the United States for the next four years. Trump and his team are trying to reinvent 80 years of historical tradition. Although in the current situation it can be said that the relationship between the United States and Europe will remain intact, there may be some fundamental changes in these relations. Now Europe must prepare to stand on its own two feet. What will happen? Will Europe be ready to face this challenge? Will it be able to take control of its own security and foreign policy? These questions will shape geopolitics in the coming years.
(Author Rachel Rizzo is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.)