Pakistan-India-China: Heading for a Water War?
On July 19th, Chinese Premier Li Qiang defended the construction of a dam on the Brahmaputra River in the ecologically fragile and sensitive Tibetan region, attempting to allay concerns in middle and lower riparian countries like India and Bangladesh about its potential impact. China states that the dam project, with an estimated cost of $167 billion, will ensure ecological conservation and enhance local prosperity.
However, concerns are growing in India. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has described the Chinese dam project on the river as a 'ticking water bomb' and a matter of grave concern. India's concerns are justified, as the Brahmaputra River is a crucial source of water for states like Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The construction of the dam could reduce water flow, negatively impacting agriculture, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
China has repeatedly assured that the dam project will not affect water availability downstream. However, countries like India and Bangladesh are skeptical of these assurances, as China is not a signatory to international water treaties.
Indus Water Dispute: Another Potential Conflict Zone
More than 3,000 kilometers away from Arunachal Pradesh, people in the Kashmir Valley are quietly speculating that the next war between India and Pakistan could be fought over Kashmir's water. Water resources are becoming another explosive issue in a region that is already tense. Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22nd, New Delhi suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). In response, Islamabad suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement and termed India’s action an 'act of war.' The IWT, mediated by the World Bank, is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, which has endured for the past 65 years, but it has been suspended by India for the first time.
According to the IWT, both countries can use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. Pakistan has been granted rights to the western rivers of the Indus basin - the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab - for irrigation, drinking, and non-consumptive use (hydropower). India has unrestricted usage rights to the eastern rivers - the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. According to the treaty, India is permitted to use the western rivers for limited purposes (power generation and irrigation) without large-scale storage or diversion.
But now New Delhi is reportedly working on a mega inter-basin water transfer scheme to divert additional flows from Jammu and Kashmir’s waters to the northern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana and even to Rajasthan. Media reports indicate that New Delhi aims to maximize the benefits of the Indus River's water. A feasibility study is being conducted to explore the possibility of constructing a 113-kilometer-long canal that would redirect additional flows from Kashmir to other states.
This proposal has not been welcomed by Islamabad or Kashmir-based political groups. Besides sparking a war of words between key unionist political organizations in Kashmir and Punjab, the project is likely to ignite new interstate water disputes.
Warnings of War
Former Indian Army officer, leading strategic and defense expert, and author Pravin Sawhney told RT that any violation of the IWT would be an act of war from Pakistan's perspective. He stated, 'Stopping the flow of water to Pakistan or diverting Kashmir's water to other states by violating the IWT will be considered an act of war. A war that India cannot win due to China and Pakistan being inseparable friends.' Indian Home Minister Amit Shah said last month during a visit to the state of Madhya Pradesh that, 'The water of the Indus will be taken through canals to Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan within three years.' He also claimed that Pakistan 'will yearn for every drop of water.' Similar statements have also been made by other Indian politicians.
How does Pakistan view this threat? In a recent interview with The Wire, Pakistan's former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari supported comprehensive talks between the two countries on all outstanding issues, including the Kashmir dispute and 'water terrorism.' He said, 'India is threatening to starve the Indus Valley Civilization, which is a shared culture, history, and heritage, by cutting off the water supply to 240 million Pakistanis. This is against everything that Indians once stood for. This is against the philosophy of [Mohandas Karamchand] Gandhi. This is against everything we were taught about India as a secular country.'
In earlier interviews, Bhutto had warned that if the flow of water to Pakistan were stopped, there would be serious consequences. During the National Assembly's budget session in Pakistan, he accused the current Indian government of violating international law by unilaterally suspending the IWT.
International Intervention
The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration recently ruled that New Delhi’s decision to suspend the IWT did not deprive the court of its ability to rule on Pakistan’s grievances against India. New Delhi has opposed the Court of Arbitration's proceedings since its constitution by the World Bank in October 2022. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs called the move 'the latest spectacle at Pakistan's behest' in a statement on June 27th. It is essential for all stakeholders to exercise restraint and negotiate on the equitable and sustainable utilization of water resources. A trilateral agreement could benefit China, India, and Pakistan, involving the demilitarization of the Siachen Glacier - the vital 'blue crystal' that nourishes the Indus. It is clear that water conflict is a major threat to regional security."