On July 15, 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stood in Washington, not as a symbol of military unity but as a messenger of economic threats. His warning was unambiguous: India, China, and Brazil could face “100% secondary sanctions” if they continued trading oil and gas with Russia. This declaration, aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, marks a sharp turn in global diplomacy—one where alliances are tested, sovereignties challenged, and economic leverage becomes the new battlefield.
India now finds itself at the centre of this brewing storm. With over 80% of its crude oil imported, India has turned to discounted Russian oil since the war in Ukraine began. The move was neither impulsive nor ideological; it was pragmatic. In 2022–23, India’s energy imports from Russia ballooned to nearly $46 billion, making Moscow its top supplier. Fuel prices at home stabilized. Economic resilience held. But was this cost-effective alignment with Russia now turning into a geopolitical liability?
India’s foreign policy has long been defined by strategic autonomy. It has walked the fine line between West and East—abstaining from UN resolutions against Russia while strengthening partnerships with the U.S. through the Quad and trade agreements. Now, with Trump demanding a resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war within 50 days, and NATO echoing that urgency, India faces a stark question: Can it afford to choose sides?
Rutte’s warning carries political weight, but not legal teeth. NATO, after all, is a security alliance—not a body that imposes economic sanctions. Indian diplomats were quick to point this out. Analysts at home dismissed Rutte’s statements as overreach. Former Ambassador K.B. Fabian remarked that the NATO chief was “talking through his hat,” while social media users questioned the West’s “colonial mindset.” Can NATO dictate trade to sovereign nations, even as its own members like Hungary and Turkey continue buying Russian energy through backdoors? The irony wasn’t lost. Even as Rutte threatened New Delhi, a recent EU report showed that European nations still collectively paid Russia over €1.2 billion in June 2025 for fossil fuels. Is this then a principled stand, or selective enforcement?
India’s immediate response has been firm, though not confrontational. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar raised the issue with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, while Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri expressed confidence in India’s ability to shift oil sourcing, citing Brazil, Canada, and Guyana as alternative partners. India, after all, began diversifying in 2022—not out of fear, but out of foresight. Still, risks remain. Secondary sanctions could target Indian pharmaceutical, IT, and textile exports to the U.S., jeopardizing a trade surplus worth over $45 billion. The proposed 500% tariffs on countries trading with Russia, floated by U.S. senators, would only intensify that pressure. Yet India’s hand is not weak. Its leadership in BRICS and the Global South gives it diplomatic cover and leverage. If targeted, New Delhi may further strengthen alternative frameworks like de-dollarized trade, energy cooperation within BRICS, or South-South alliances. But how far can such defiance go without economic cost?
Another path lies in diplomacy. India has consistently called for dialogue in the Ukraine war. Prime Minister Modi’s balanced outreach to both Kyiv and Moscow positions New Delhi as a potential peace broker. But will the West accept India’s neutrality—or seek to punish it for not towing the line? At stake is more than trade. It’s a test of India’s long-touted autonomy in a world increasingly defined by binary choices. Can it sustain its multi-alignment doctrine in the face of U.S.-led coercion? Will it prioritize energy security over geopolitical pressure? As NATO strays from its original mandate, and U.S. politics grows more transactional, India will need to tread carefully. It must defend its sovereign choices without isolating itself from crucial partnerships. In this high-stakes tug-of-war, New Delhi’s quiet strength may yet prove to be its sharpest tool.
Riya Goyal is a trainee journalist at Cult Current. The views expressed in the article are
her ownand do not necessarily reflect the official stance of Cult Current.