For first time since Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, Russia is importing refined petroleum products from India in significant quantities - a stunning reversal of energy trade.
Data Point analysis by Nitika Francis shows after multiple Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil refineries, Russian dependence on Indian products surged. Indian refiners sent about one million barrels over last two months, alongside Turkey and Morocco. Traditionally, Russia's share in India's petroleum exports was less than 1%, bulk went to Netherlands, Australia and UAE. Now reports confirm sharp increase in last two months, tilting huge imbalance between two countries, though marginally.
Why? According to International Strategic Action Network for Security, at least 17 attacks on 16 different oil refineries in Russia in July alone, plus 8 attacks on depots and pumping stations. OPEC data shows Russia's refinery crude throughput fell from 5.18 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 to 3.88 million in Q3 2026. Unplanned refinery outages diverted higher volumes of crude to export market. India, which ranks fourth in global refining capacity at 6.72 million bpd after China 18.83, US 18.17 and Russia 6.72, utilised Russia's sudden demand to export.
Context: Russia accounted for nearly one-third - 31.6% - of India's crude imports as of June 2026. India imported $531 million worth of crude from Russia in June 2026, roughly double that of January 2022 before invasion. Despite US President Donald Trump's additional tariffs on India in October 2025 for buying Russian crude forced India to sharply cut crude import, imports resumed in full swing soon after. In fact, after US and Israel launched a war with Iran in February this year, former did U-turn and tacitly encouraged Russian crude supplies into market to negate impact of Iran's blockade in Strait of Hormuz.
It may take months for Russia to bring refining capacity back. Till then surge in exports could continue, helping India ease pressure on foreign exchange. Refining relationship that was one-way now goes both ways.