Prior to devoting the vast majority of my retirement time to political research and pro – Israeli activism , I enjoyed a moderately successful career in the world of international finance , firstly as an auditor for a global bank , then as a Eurobond trader and lastly as a fund manager . Since the age of 18, I have had the pleasure and experience of travelling the world, working extensively in Asia and the Middle East. I have kept in contact with many of my former colleagues and clients, especially those in Muslim countries. I had the true joy of long stay employment in Egypt and Japan, lesser so in Malaysia, Indonesia (and Singapore) and this helped in establishing a client list for my trading and investment career.
However, the investments I made and advised for and on behalf of my Iranian client base proved financially rewarding quite unlike the investments made by the Iranian government themselves, which have all but failed, or are in the process of being totally liquidated. Failing investments are part and parcel of commercial life, from the South Sea Bubble , the Wall Street crash ,the property crash, the Madoff scam and the sub- prime bond markets which caused the collapse of numerous institutions and the subsequent multi trillion- dollar bank bail -out . Investors take a punt based on gut feeling, emotions, knowledge, advice or analysis in the hope and expectation that their investments will reward them. The totalitarian theocrats of Iran have made similar investments, and all seem to have failed in a very short period despite applying a well- established investment criterion of spreading their risk.
Iran have made huge financial investments in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and the so- called Palestinian territories. They supplied weaponry, manpower, intelligence and funds to proxies. The Iranians were the fund managers, and the investments made were a mix of discretionary, where the proxies acted independently, and non- discretionary, where the investor has a say in how and in what to invest.
Years of careful investments based on studious analysis , planning , risk assessment, emotional feel and enormous capital input estimated to be in billions of dollars have been wiped out as a direct result of poor political and military decisions and choosing incompetent actors to perform the tasks required of them.
Economically this has resulted in disaster let alone exacerbating the loss of military and geopolitical power which was the ultimate goal of the Iranian regime. The Iranian Riyal has been in freefall – officially there are as at the time of writing 40,000 Riyals to the dollar but on the black market the Riyal is valued at 700,000 to the dollar and the death penalty for anyone caught trading at these levels.
Iran is busted economically. Their investments in Syria propping up the butcher Assad have been wiped out as the overthrow of the regime lead to Israel destroying all Syrian aircraft, the navy, modern and chemical weaponry. Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon and the destruction of Hamas in Gaza too has destroyed years of Iranian investment both in terms of political and financial capital. The Houthis have tried their best to support their Iranian masters through interruption of world shipping via the Red Sea but US and UK military challenge together with months of biblical flooding which has destroyed Yemen’s infrastructure and agriculture have dramatically obstructed Iran’s Yemeni power base. And all this capital investment liquidation in less than 18 months which took twenty years and more of careful analytical planning. As with any investment, investments can go up or down and Iranian assets have been on a steepening downward trajectory. When President elect Trump comes into the White House on January 20th next year Iran internally will be under further pressure. Domestic forces may well be the factor finally forcing the defeat of the mad Mullahs. Who would currently invest in Iran? Only fools would rush in.
Peter Baum, Editor (International Political Affairs)
to Blitz is a research-scholar, who writes extensively on Israel, Holocaust, Zionism, Middle East, Anti-Semitism
and other issues. Peter Baum has worked for four
decades in the International Financial Markets specializing in the Capital Market.