With 85.6 percent votes counted, Netanyahu right religious coalition has lost its majority but is still largest bloc. Likud party projected 32 to 33, Religious Zionist plus Otzma Yehudit 12, Shas 11, United Torah Judaism 7. Opposition bloc Yesh Atid 18, National Unity 12, Yisrael Beiteinu 10, Democrats 8, Raam 5, Hadash Taal 5.
Benjamin Netanyahu was at centre of October 27 elections. For Israels longest serving Prime Minister who oversaw genocidal war in Gaza following Hamas October 7 attack, election was biggest test of political career. For opposition which promised to hold him accountable for failures of October 7 and end countrys forever wars, election offered opportunity to oust him from power. Results sent mixed message.
Why no majority? War fatigue, economic cost. Israel growth 1.5 percent 2024, 2.8 percent 2025 versus 6.5 percent pre war, inflation 4.2 percent, reservists called for 300 days service. Judicial overhaul 2023 alienated centrists. Also hostages issue, 120 still in Gaza.
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Arab turnout analysis is separate story. What has driven high Arab turnout? Arab voter turnout estimated nearly 80 percent, highest in at least a decade. Historically 40 to 60 percent. In 2022, 59 percent. Now 80 percent. Reasons include fear of far right leader Itamar Ben Gvir who called for expulsion, motivation to oust Netanyahu, and Mansour Abbas Raam showing that joining coalition delivers funds. Raam got 9 billion dollars for Arab towns in 2021 to 2022 coalition. About 20 percent of Israels population is Arab Israelis.
For India perspective, Israel is second largest defence supplier after Russia historically, now about 1.6 billion dollars per year. Barak 8 air defence, Harop drones used against Armenia and in Indian inventory, Spice bombs used in Balakot 2019, Phalcon AWACS. Defence Minister choice matters. Yoav Gallant pro India, Bezalel Smotrich less focused on India.
Also India invited Pakistan to SCO Council of Heads of Government in Delhi November 27 to 28. Same time coalition talks in Jerusalem will decide foreign policy.
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Electoral system explains fragmentation. Entire country one district, 120 seats, 3.25 percent threshold. Closed lists mean party bosses decide order. Likud uses primaries, ultra orthodox rabbis decide.
President Isaac Herzog will give mandate to leader of largest bloc, likely Netanyahu, 28 days plus 14 days extension, if fails 21 days any MK can try to get 61 signatures. Possibility of unity government with Benny Gantz National Unity.
Tags: #IsraelElections #Netanyahu #Likud #Knesset #ArabTurnout #GazaWar #Coalition #Herzog #DefenceTies #ElectoralSystem