External Affairs

The 100% Trap

Trump’s Tariff Hammer: Why Russian Oil Now Costs More Than Oil?

Cult Current Desk
Cult Current Desk
21 Sep 2026
Solar farm during sunset

 

The US Russia Sanctions Act signed by President Donald Trump is not another tariff threat. Earlier 50% penal tariffs on Indian exports for buying Russian oil came via Executive Order and could be reversed the same way. This Act is Congress-passed, requiring written justification to Congress for any waiver, giving it legal permanence.

The Act authorises up to 100% tariffs on countries importing large quantities of Russian oil and gas — on top of 10% forced labour tariffs and 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. For India, where Russia accounted for 51% of oil imports in July 2026 and oil is above $100/barrel, sharing costs with US customers as exporters did for 50% tariffs is impossible. MSMEs exporting to the US — India’s largest destination at 20% of goods exports — will be priced out.

India has three options, all bad: cut Russian oil and scramble for expensive alternatives while Strait of Hormuz supplies remain constrained; bear tariffs and lose export market; or lobby for a low rate using the “up to 100%” wording during Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s US visit before the 30-day window closes.

History suggests Delhi usually complies with US pressure on oil sourcing, strategic autonomy claims aside. Oman’s alternative ports won’t be ready overnight. This is a test of Modi-Trump friendship, but also of Atmanirbhar reality — you cannot be self-reliant if your energy and your exports both depend on decisions in Washington.