In Brazil's political circles, Flávio Bolsonaro is known as O1 for being the first-born son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. But he has been number one only figuratively. It was always presumed Jair's political heir would be Eduardo or O3, now in hiding in the US, while Carlos or O2 was seen as his ideological heir. Flávio kept a lower profile than his brothers - and even than Michelle, Jair's third wife.
Now, with Jair barred from running while serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup against President Lula da Silva, Eduardo facing prison if he returns, and Carlos lying low after scandals, the onus of keeping the family name active fell on Flavio after a fallout with Michelle. Nobody chose Flavio to lead Brazil's far-right. The role came to him accidentally.
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On October 4, 45-year-old Flavio faces 80-year-old leftist Lula in presidential elections. On eve of polls, Lula was leading by five points, with a tighter race expected if contest goes to second round. Lula's attack is personal: “Flávio doesn't have a past, he doesn't have a present and no future too. He has not done any work in his life.”
Flávio has made little effort to build his own identity. He campaigns on the Bolsonaro template: pro-business, aligned with the US and Israel, deeply reliant on evangelical churches whose growing influence often puts them at odds with Brazil's Catholic establishment. Last week he was on defensive after reports he planned to strip Nossa Senhora Aparecida of patron saint status, triggering backlash among Catholic voters.
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Where he has gone further than his father is in openly seeking Donald Trump's support. In May at the White House, he discussed tariffs and rare earth minerals, pitching Brazil as strategic alternative to China. Like his father, he is dogged by allegations of links to scandalous banker Daniel Vorcaro and Rio's militia. Popularity that was rising has gone flat. But O1, by accident of birth and politics, could still become President by accident.
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