The impact of U.S.'s crackdown on skilled migrant labour - Data Point - US move to suspend several firms including Indian IT companies from Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) programme latest in Donald Trump administration's crackdown on employment-based immigration.
While US reasoned that crackdown, including proclamation signed by Trump last year to raise H-1B visa fee to $100,000, is attempt to persuade companies to hire more US workers, data show this will significantly affect US's access to skilled workers, and prove counterproductive in long run.
Employment-based migration to US, particularly H-1B programme, allows highly skilled immigrant workers to take temporary employment. Labor processes such as employer-sponsored PERM certification and Form I-140 can pave way for permanent residency through green card. However, applications under these categories already on decline under Trump administration.
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First, number of H-1B registrations have taken hit after $1,00,000 fee imposed September 2025. Fee later struck down by federal courts June 2026. Second, while temporary workers depend on employment route for green cards, their share quite low. More than 10 lakh people obtained permanent residency in US each year. However, share of those utilising employment route for green cards has been decreasing in recent years. Green cards largely obtained by immediate relatives of US citizens and family-sponsored preferences.
Recent move suspending several firms - Microsoft, Adobe, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL (America/Tech), Cognizant, Capgemini - from applying for PERM may have limited impact as well. These companies already filing fewer applications since Trump came to office. These companies together accounted for less than 10% of all PERM applications filed. Their share already dropped to mere 4% in 2025, first year of second Trump administration. So far this year, companies filed about 2,000 PERM applications, less than 2% of all applications filed by various employer's.
While Indians accounted for more than half of these PERM applications, breakdown of I-140 preferences illustrates extent of skilled labour migration. Analysis of I-140 visa applications, filed with USCIS to classify workers for employment-based immigration, shows that more than 20,000 Indian professionals with advanced degrees applied for citizenship in US each year since 2014. This eligibility criteria requires that applicant either have US master degree or higher (or foreign equivalent) or US bachelor's degree followed by at least five years work experience in specialisation. In process of merely qualifying for eligibility itself, these applicants contribute to US economy as both students and employees.
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Much of debate on immigration crackdown also ignores benefits they bring to economy. According to Congressional Budget Office analysis July 2024, immigration surge estimated to add $1.2 trillion in federal revenues over 2024-2034 period, largely due to their income and payroll taxes.
In long term, increased crackdown on migrant workers could risk investments and activities by corporations outside US.
For India, impact double - IT services model built on H-1B + L1 now uneconomical at $100k fee, forcing firms to hire local Americans at higher cost, reducing margins. Second, 20,000 advanced degree Indians per year who would have become green card holders now stuck, may return, creating reverse brain gain but also loss of remittance. India's own GCC growth may absorb them. For US, losing skilled workers means losing $1.2 trillion revenue.
Tags: #H1B #PERM #USImmigration #Trump #IndianIT #GreenCard #1140 #SkilledMigration #Infosys