Raja Mohan says - Azerbaijan as gateway to changing Eurasia. Why now? PM Modi scheduled Baku visit November? Actually COP29 was 2024, but strategic.
Four reasons.
One, geography. Baku at Caspian Sea - connects to Russia via Volga-Don, to Central Asia via Aktau port, to Turkey via Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, to Iran via Astara. India's International North-South Transport Corridor INSTC - Mumbai to Bandar Abbas to Rasht to Astara (Iran) to Baku to Astrakhan to Moscow - cuts 40% time vs Suez - 32 days vs 45. But missing link 164 km Rasht-Astara rail in Iran delayed since 2005 due to sanctions, funding - Russia just pledged $1.4 bn loan 2023, work 30% done. Azerbaijan built its section.
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Two, Turkey-Pakistan axis. Turkey supplied Bayraktar TB2 drones to Pakistan 2022-25 - used in LoC skirmish May 2025 where India shot down 2. Turkey also raised Kashmir at UNGA 2023-25. Azerbaijan is Turkey's ally - "one nation two states" - but wants autonomy from Ankara. It balanced - supplied oil to Israel (40% of Israel's oil), bought Israeli Harop drones used against Armenia 2020, 2023. India can leverage Israel-Azerbaijan-India triangle against Turkey-Pak.
Three, energy. Azerbaijan produces 35 BCM gas, 0.7 mbpd oil, wants to double gas to Europe via TANAP-TAP - 16 BCM now to Italy. India imports 85% oil - can invest in ACG field where ONGC Videsh has 2.3% share since 2013. Gas - Azerbaijan willing to do swap - Iranian gas via Azerbaijan?
Four, Central Asia. India's Connect Central Asia policy stuck due to Pakistan denial of transit. Via Baku, India can reach Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan via Caspian ferry - alternative to Chabahar which US sanctions on Iran complicate. Baku has Indian diaspora 900, but growing students.
India-Armenia vs Azerbaijan balance - India sold Armenia Pinaka MLRS, ATAGS guns 2022 worth $400 mn, angering Baku. But Baku still invited India for SCO summit 2024. Raja Mohan says don't choose - follow Chanakya - deal with both, like Iran-Saudi balance.
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Practical steps: Upgrade Baku embassy to full consulate, direct IndiGo flight Delhi-Baku (4.5 hrs) started 2023 but twice weekly, need daily. Open UPI in Azerbaijan - 2 million Indian tourists visited Azerbaijan 2024-25 due to visa on arrival, cheap - need payment link.
For J&K analogy - Azerbaijan took back Nagorno-Karabakh 2023 after 30 years occupation, using drones - lesson for India? Use tech to regain?
Baku's COP29 2024 gave it greenwash - but it still expands oil - needs India tech for green hydrogen - NTPC can help.
In short, Baku is not just oil city, it's Eurasian hinge India ignored for Turkey romance.
Tags: #Baku #Azerbaijan #INSTC #Eurasia #TurkeyPakistan #CRajaMohan #CentralAsia #Israel #Chabahar #IndianDiplomacy