Data Point by Vignesh Radhakrishnan and Rishika Sadam. Around 64.5 lakh electors are potentially missing from final electoral rolls of Karnataka released after SIR on Tuesday, based on Elector to Population ratio of 66.11 released by office of Chief Electoral Officer.
States E to P ratio quoted in CEO statements calculated as ratio between total number of electors on rolls and estimated population in 2026 in all age groups, including those below 18 years and not eligible to vote. The 18 to 29 age group accounted for majority of those missing, calculations further showed. Of 64.5 lakh potentially missing, 38.41 lakh, 59.5 percent, are in 18 to 29 age group.
Calculations based on 2020 Report of Technical Group on Population Projections, constituted by National Commission on Population and cited by Karnataka CEO. Hindu used estimated population from same report in different age groups to estimate potential number of electors missing from rolls. As per report, estimated population in Karnataka as of March 1 2026 should be around 6.89 crore, of which population eligible to vote should be 5.19 crore.
Read more - Deletion Overload
If all eligible voters had been included, total in rolls would have been roughly 5.19 crore. However final rolls released Tuesday had only 4,54,55,689 electors excluding Service Electors, which is shortfall of about 64.5 lakh voters.
Karnataka had 5.54 crore electors on its rolls before SIR commenced, which was above estimated population in 18 plus age group, indicating rolls required removal of redundant entries, mainly duplicated and deceased voters. But removal seems excessive, especially youth.
Age breakup shows women in 18 to 29 shortfall higher, 18 percent versus men 12 percent, indicates young women not enrolled after marriage shifting residence. Bengaluru Urban shortfall 22 lakh, Mysuru 6 lakh, Belagavi 5 lakh.
Historical comparison. Tamil Nadu SIR 2025 missing 12 lakh only, because they did door to door twice, used college enrollment data. Karnataka did one round plus software deletion.
Implications. 2024 Lok Sabha BJP won 19 seats, Congress 9, JD(S) 2, margin in many seats less than 50k, 64.5 lakh missing can swing 10 seats. Youth left out chart shows people marching to protest, youth left out.
Read more - Leaked VET Gate
Methodology caution. E to P ratio includes below 18, so ideal is Age Cohort wise analysis. But even with that, youth missing high.
Solution. Keep enumeration open ended as SC said, allow belated forms, use college enrollment data to add, use anganwadi ASHA workers.
For democracy, missing youth means future voters disengaged.
Tags: #KarnatakaRolls #SIR #ElectorPopulation #YouthVoters #MissingVoters #Bengaluru #FirstTimeVoters #DataJournalism #ElectoralRoll #Democracy