As Prime Minister Narendra Modi completes 25 years in public office, agricultural economist Ashok Gulati's audit is timely and blunt. Gujarat under Modi from 2001 to 2014 grew agriculture at 9 percent, unheard of in the Green Revolution heartland of Punjab, built on check dams, Narmada water, separate power feeders and Krishi Mahotsavs. But at national level since 2014, agri-GDP growth has been 4 percent - same as before, and not enough when population growth is below 1 percent.
Gulati's central point: India's production basket is dangerously mismatched. We have too much rice and wheat, too few pulses and oilseeds. We burn Rs 40,000 per hectare in power, fertiliser and canal subsidies to grow paddy in Punjab-Haryana where water tables fall 17 feet each year. The 2016 Ashok Dalwai Committee said doubling real farmer incomes needs 10.4 percent agri-GDP growth. We are at 4.
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So what next? Gulati offers two disruptors. First, shift incentives. If we want farmers to move from paddy to pulses for groundwater and climate, reward them Rs 35,000 per hectare. Yes, it burdens exchequer, but saves power, fertiliser and canal subsidy. Try it 50:50 with states in Haryana, where water crisis is acute.
Second, the big idea: agri-photovoltaics. Let farmer be both annadata and urjadata. Install solar panels at 10-11 feet height, grow crops below. ICRIER pilot in Rajasthan increased farmer income eight to ten times. PM-KUSUM already gives subsidy. Now ensure feed-in tariff so rural power is bought at half cost of traditional setup. Call it 'Surya Khet Kranti' on lines of Operation Flood.
The economics from ICRIER show paddy cultivation in Punjab-Haryana survives only because of large hidden subsidies. Make solar plus pulses equally lucrative, and change follows.
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For Viksit Bharat 2047, this matters more than MSP hikes. Cereal surplus with nutrition deficiency is not food security. Farmers' incomes won't double by growing more of same in a water-stressed country. It will double when a farm produces food, milk, fish, vegetables AND electricity - multiple incomes from same acre. The sun that scorched crops can now pay for them.
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