The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol turns 10 today. It agreed to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, which had become common refrigerants after world moved away from chemicals like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroyed ozone layer. Countries since eliminated nearly 99% of ozone-depleting substances and layer is recovering.
The 2016 amendment in Kigali, Rwanda, expected to prevent up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100. Yet at its 10th anniversary, world is getting warmer faster, demand for cooling is rising rapidly, and machines that provide cooling can themselves add to warming.
What is Montreal Protocol? Montreal Protocol was agreed 1987 to cut CFCs and other chemicals that damage ozone layer. Countries since eliminated nearly 99% of ozone-depleting substances.
Read more - The September Surge
Hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, became common substitutes in refrigeration and air-conditioning. These chemicals carry heat out of space being cooled. If they leak, they can be hundreds to thousands of times more potent than CO2 - that destroyed ozone layer - by weight, over a century. Adoption of HFCs grew up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100. Yet its implementation and bringing them under Protocol in 2009. Governments adopted amendment in Kigali, Rwanda, on Oct 15, 2016. It entered into force in January 2019. It sets binding schedules for reducing HFC production and consumption.
How much warming could it prevent? Full implementation could avoid about 0.3°C to 0.5°C of global warming by 2100, according to US-backed scientific assessment. This is significant difference between projected temperatures with HFC controls and those without - but only if done when Paris Agreement seeks to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue limit of 1.5°C. However, Kigali has to achieve universal participation; 175 parties had joined by early October.
Why cooling becomes central? Kigali contributes to warming in two ways. Refrigerants can escape into atmosphere, while electricity used to run air-conditioners causes emissions wherever fossil fuels supply power. Switching to refrigerant with lower warming impact addresses first, more efficient machine addresses second. Manufacturers changing refrigerants often need to redesign equipment. Improving efficiency during redesign can reduce electricity use for lifetime of equipment. The Kigali programme and International Energy Agency estimate combining HFC phase-down with efficiency could roughly double climate benefit.
Read more - When The Sky Turned Red In Borneo
For India, electricity savings would be for slightly more than a tenth of annual electricity demand, according to IEA. However, air-conditioner stock is expected to account for as much as a third of power consumption. Under current policies, India will see cooling electricity demand projected to more than double by 2035.
What must India do with Kigali? India ratified amendment in 2021 and must freeze HFC production and consumption at baseline. First cap at that baseline is due in 2032, reductions reach 85% in 2047. Limits calculated from first cuts may remain in use well into 2060s.
Who pays for transition? According to protocol, developing countries to pay? Actually Multilateral Fund helps agreed additional costs of compliance. Established in 1990, fund pays contributions from developed countries to help poorer countries change technologies. This includes converting factories and training people who service cooling equipment.
Could parallel approach work for other short-lived climate pollutants? Such as SLCPs, methane, black carbon, HFCs at tropospheric or ground-level ozone. Often called super pollutants, they have strong warming effects and generally remain in atmosphere for much less time than carbon dioxide. Reducing them can limit warming over longer term alongside carbon dioxide cuts needed to limit warming. There are other sources would need different rules. For instance, India, measures to reduce methane may need focus on small farmers' incomes and food production. Black carbon, soot produced by incomplete combustion, requiring different sources such as diesel engines and household such as diesel engines and household cooking fuels.
For India, Kigali is about equity - we didn't cause most warming, but we will need most cooling.
Hashtags: #KigaliAmendment #MontrealProtocol #HFC #CoolingDemand #ClimateChange #IndiaCooling #Refrigerants #EnergyEfficiency #GlobalWarming #ParisAgreement