External Affairs

The Oil Squeeze

Two-thirds of India's oil imports now from just three nations - Russia 44%, US and UAE surging - as American crude comes at $810 per tonne premium over average.

Cult Current Desk
Cult Current Desk
19 Oct 2026
Solar farm during sunset

 

Two-thirds oil imports from just 3 nations - Business page 15 - While Russia's share in India's oil imports fell to 44%, from historic high in July, share of both US and UAE surged, resulting in cumulative shares of three countries reaching all-time high; American oil came at substantial premium compared with average price India paid.

In sign of increasing concentration of India's oil supplies and its limited options to source from, latest data shows that more than two-thirds of country's oil imports came from just three countries - Russia, US, and UAE - marking record high share.

Notably, Russia's share in India's oil imports fell to around 44% in August 2026, latest month for which official data available, from historic high of 51% in July. Data shows that India's oil imports from both US and UAE surged in August, with American oil coming at substantial premium compared with average price India paid for all imports.

 

Read more - Drone War Escalates 

 

India's total oil imports stood at 19.2 lakh tonnes in August 2026, which was 10.3% lower than in July, but 3.4% higher than in August last year. However, elevated price of oil has meant that India's oil import bill was nearly 25% higher in August this year than in same month last year.

Within this, Russian oil accounted for 84.8 lakh tonnes of Indian oil imports, or 44.3% of total. In terms of India's oil import bill of $12.2 billion in August 2026, payments to Russia accounted for 44.5%. That said, India imported 23% less oil from Russia in August 2026 than in July, although figure was still 22.5% higher than in August last year.

India's elevated oil imports from Russia have been sore point in its relations with US and its President Donald Trump, who in September signed into law Act that could see tariffs of up to 100% being levied on countries that import large amounts of Russian oil and gas, as India does.

On other hand, India's oil imports from US once again surged in August 2026 to 9.7 lakh tonnes, making up 5.1% of India's total oil imports that month. In terms of quantity, this was nearly 82% higher than in July, and more than 130% higher than in August last year. Data also shows that India paid average of $810.6 per tonne of oil to US, much higher than average price of $640 per tonne it paid across all its oil imports in August. Oil from US has been costlier than average since June 2026. Notably, India's oil imports from UAE also jumped in August 2026 as two countries established alternate supply routes through ports relatively un-impacted by war in West Asia. Oil imports from UAE, at 33 lakh tonnes, made up 17.4% of India's total oil imports and 16.9% of its oil import bill. 

 

Read more - US-India Strategic Pact: Landmark Defence & Tech Deal Finalized

 

Analytically, concentration risk is rising. If Strait of Hormuz disrupted - Houthis hit presidential palace in Aden, four killed - 66.85% of India's oil from three countries passes through vulnerable routes. US premium is price for showing Trump that India buying American. UAE surge shows diversification within concentration - Abu Dhabi offering discounts to keep India away from Russia.

For consumer, import bill up 25% means petrol prices may rise after Bihar elections, despite government holding rates.

 

 

 

 

Tags: #Oillmports #Russia #USOil #UAE #CrudeBill #TrumpTariffs #StraitOfHormuz #EnergySecurity #TradeData