More than six months ahead of 2027 Assembly elections in UP, political parties looking for issues to mobilise voters. Congress rally addressed by Mallikarjun Kharge at Ramlila Ground Haldwani and puja described as shuddhikaran puja after, emerged as issue Congress seeking to capitalise. Though party knows Dalit support minuscule, trying to expand appeal among Dalit communities.
Data Point analysis shows larger question not simply whether parties will try to mobilise Dalit voters — they certainly will — but how much of Dalit vote remains transferable, and which party can attract it.
BSP had remained most popular choice among Dalit voters, though more so among Jatavs and slightly less among non-Jatav Dalits. Over years large number of Jatavs voted for BSP; however some decline visible. When BSP came to power in 2007, 86% of Jatavs voted for BSP while only 54% non-Jatav Dalits voted for it. In last Assembly 2022, figure dropped to 65% among Jatavs, support among non-Jatav Dalits declined to 27%.
Pattern even more striking when looked separately. Support for BJP/NDA among Jatavs increased from just 3% in 2002 to about 20% in 2022, while BSP support declined from 76% to 65%. Among non-Jatav Dalits shift sharper — BJP/NDA support increased from 12% in 2002 to 40% in 2022, BSP fell from 45% to 27%.
Data clearly suggest weakening of BSP is not mere fragmentation; much of vote moved away gone to BJP, especially among non-Jatav Dalits. Between 2002-2022 support for BJP among non-Jatav increased 28 percentage points vs 17 points among Jatavs.
Weakening reflected in overall decline — BSP vote share declined from 30.4% in 2007 to 12.8% in 2022. Over same period BJP/NDA vote share increased from 18.5% to 43.8%, SP/SP+ also increased from 25.4% to 36.3%.
Congress support amongst Dalit voters extremely low, remained in single digits except 2012 when secured 16% non-Jatav Dalit vote, fell back to 4% by 2022. Congress sees Ramlila Ground incident as opportunity to bring sections back.
Elections due early 2027, data indication — Dalit vote remains electorally important, no longer tied firmly to one party. Weakening of BSP does not mean Dalits stopped having clear preferences; rather BJP gained significantly from decline, particularly among non-Jatav Dalits, while SP retained meaningful share.